Endo Out of World Cup as Japan Captain Retires — Odds
Japan captain Wataru Endo has withdrawn from the 2026 FIFA World Cup squad because of a lingering foot injury and announced his retirement from international football, the Japan Football Association confirmed three days before the Samurai Blue open Group F against the Netherlands — a double blow for a side already priced at just a **2.15%** chance to lift the trophy on Polymarket. The 33-year-old Liverpool midfielder underwent surgery on his left foot in late February and managed only 45 minutes on his comeback in Japan's 1-0 send-off win over Iceland on May 31, when he was substituted at halftime. National team director Masakuni Yamamoto said manager Hajime Moriyasu made the final call after medical staff reported that Endo could not reach match fitness during the camp in Nashville, Tennessee.
Endo had captained Japan through qualifying and served as the midfield anchor Moriyasu built around after the 2022 World Cup round-of-16 run. In his place on the roster, Borussia Mönchengladbach forward Shuto Machino has been called up, while Ajax centre-back Ko Itakura — who wore the armband in March's friendly against Colombia — takes over as captain. Endo capped his 73-international career with an emotional statement on social media, saying he had "no regrets" but acknowledging the frustration of missing a tournament Japan had publicly targeted as a breakthrough moment. For a squad that leaned heavily on his experience and positional discipline, losing both the player and the leadership layer this close to kickoff forces a late tactical reset.
What it means for the odds
Polymarket traders had already treated Japan as a long shot in the World Cup winner market, but Endo's exit removes the one midfielder who guaranteed structure in transition and set-piece phases. Japan's outright price sits at **2.15%**, well behind Group F favorite Netherlands at **4.35%** and distant from the market's top tier. That gap may widen if Machino struggles to replicate Endo's defensive screening against the Dutch press in Dallas on June 14. Moriyasu's group also includes Tunisia and a European playoff winner, so any slip in the opener could compound quickly in a four-team format where only the top two advance. Bettors weighing Japan's path should note that Itakura's elevation signals a possible shift toward a more conservative back line rather than a like-for-like midfield replacement. Prediction markets move on availability as much as reputation, and Japan just lost both in one announcement. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 12, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.