Japan 4-0 Tunisia Puts Samurai Blue on Knockout Track
Japan thrashed Tunisia 4–0 in Monterrey on Saturday to mark the 1,000th men's FIFA World Cup match and pull level with the Netherlands on four points atop Group F, according to AP News. Ayase Ueda scored twice, Daichi Kamada netted the fastest goal in Japan's World Cup history in the fourth minute, and Junya Itō added a third before Ueda's looping header sealed the rout. The result eliminated Tunisia and left Japan guaranteed at least third in the group with one match remaining against Sweden. On Polymarket's World Cup winner market, Japan traded at roughly 2.35% heading into the next round of fixtures — a thin but meaningful price for a side now chasing a fourth straight knockout appearance.
The performance arrived in a group where Japan had already held the Netherlands to a 2–2 draw in its opener, suggesting the Samurai Blue can compete with one of Europe's deeper squads even after Takefusa Kubo's worrying exit from that match. Kamada operated as a shadow striker behind Ueda, and the Feyenoord forward's club form — 24 Eredivisie goals this season — translated directly into a ruthless night against a Tunisia side that had sacked its manager after a 5–1 opening loss to Sweden. Hervé Renard, brought in as an emergency appointment, could not slow a Japanese attack that kept pressing at 2–0 and finished with a national-record four goals in a single World Cup game. Hajime Moriyasu, the first coach to lead Japan at consecutive World Cups, told reporters his side would look to carry that scoring mentality into Thursday's meeting with Sweden in Dallas.
What it means for the odds
World Cup winner markets had already priced Japan as a long shot, but Saturday's display gives traders a concrete data point rather than preseason speculation. The Netherlands still lead Group F on goal difference and trade near 5.65% to lift the trophy — roughly double Japan's 2.35% implied probability — reflecting the gap between a perennial European contender and an Asian side fighting for respect on the biggest stage. Tunisia's elimination removes one obstacle, yet Japan still needs a strong result against Sweden to clinch progression outright; finishing third could suffice depending on results elsewhere, but that path leaves little margin for error. For winner-market pricing, the operative question is whether this was a one-off against a demoralized opponent or evidence that Japan can sustain pressure against European defenses; AP notes the Samurai Blue have not lost to a European team in 90 minutes since 2019. Reports suggest traders may nudge Japan's price higher if the Sweden performance confirms the attacking rhythm Ueda and Kamada displayed in Monterrey, but a single group-stage rout rarely rewrites a full-tournament narrative on its own. Prediction market prices reflect trader sentiment and can move quickly; they are not guarantees of match outcomes.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 21, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.