Livramento Ruled Out as England World Cup Odds Hold
England's World Cup squad has lost full-back Tino Livramento to a hamstring injury on the eve of their Group L opener against Croatia, with Chelsea defender Trevoh Chalobah called up from the standby list as his replacement, Sky Sports reported Tuesday — and Polymarket still prices England at a 10.5% chance to win the 2026 World Cup. The setback lands less than 24 hours before Thomas Tuchel's side kick off in Dallas, stripping the squad of a versatile defender who had only recently returned from a thigh problem that kept him out for the final five weeks of the club season.
Livramento, 23, was thought to have picked up the injury in training away from the cameras on Sunday, with a subsequent scan confirming he cannot play any further part in the tournament. Newcastle United said he will continue his rehabilitation with the club. The Football Association moved quickly to activate FIFA's injury-replacement rule, which allows a nation to swap one outfield player from its provisional 55-man list into the final 26-man squad up to 24 hours before the opening match. England face Croatia on Wednesday evening in Dallas, meaning the deadline was tight. Chalobah, who was holidaying in the United States and is well known to Tuchel from their time together at Chelsea, is now en route to join the squad. The 26-year-old centre-back offers cover rather than a like-for-like replacement at wing-back, where Reece James and Nico O'Reilly are expected to start against Croatia. Jarrell Quansah, Ezri Konsa, and Djed Spence remain as alternative options on the flanks, with Dan Burn able to fill in at left-back if needed.
What it means for the odds
On Polymarket's World Cup winner market, England sit at 10.5% — roughly a 9.5-to-1 implied price — making them the fourth-favourite behind Spain (13.9%), France (17.4%), and the co-leaders at the top of the board. That figure has ticked up 0.9 percentage points over the past 24 hours, suggesting traders have not dramatically repriced England's title chances on the Livramento news alone. That makes sense: he was projected as a backup to James and O'Reilly, not a guaranteed starter. The more consequential question for the market is whether this injury signals a broader fitness problem in Tuchel's defensive depth at a tournament where squad rotation will matter more than ever across 104 matches in 39 days. England's Group L also features Ghana and Panama, and a slow start against Croatia could compress the margin for error in a 48-team format where third-place advancement is possible but never guaranteed. Reports suggest Tuchel passed over higher-profile standby options including Trent Alexander-Arnold — whose whereabouts were reportedly uncertain — and Harry Maguire, who is working as media in the United States. That choice keeps the squad's tactical identity intact but leaves England with 25 outfield players who were not originally in the travelling 26. For bettors, the Livramento loss is a depth story rather than a star-player shock, but depth stories compound quickly at World Cups. Prediction markets are not guarantees of outcomes. Gamble responsibly.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 16, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.