Messi Scores in 7 Straight World Cups; Argentina Top Group J
Lionel Messi became the first player to score in seven consecutive World Cup matches as Argentina closed the group stage with a 3-1 win over Jordan, according to Al Jazeera—and Polymarket traders now price the defending champions at roughly **20.3%** to retain the trophy on world-cup-winner markets. The 38-year-old came off the bench in Arlington, Texas, and scored his sixth goal of this tournament and his record-extending 19th career World Cup strike, capping a night that left Argentina as the only team in Group J with a perfect nine-point record.
The result matters beyond the stat sheet. Argentina rotated heavily in their final group fixture yet still found a way to win, a pattern that has defined their campaign since the opening whistle. Reigning champions rarely exit the group stage without a blemish; doing so with three straight victories keeps their knockout path intact and preserves the aura that title markets tend to reward. In the same group, Austria and Algeria drew 3-3 in a frantic finale that sent both into the Round of 32 and eliminated Iran, while Austria now faces Spain and Algeria meets Switzerland in the first knockout round.
What it means for the odds
Argentina's **20.3%** implied probability on Polymarket's World Cup winner market places them second behind France (22.9%) and ahead of Spain (10.5%) and England (10.2%) as the knockout stage opens on June 28. That price has climbed over the past 24 hours as traders digest a flawless group run from the holders. Argentina's Round of 32 opponent is Cape Verde, the smallest nation ever to reach a World Cup knockout round—a matchup that, on paper, offers a gentler entry into the single-elimination phase than several other top seeds drew. A potential Messi versus Cristiano Ronaldo final remains alive on opposite sides of the bracket, though both captains would need to navigate four more knockout ties to reach MetLife Stadium on July 19. For now, the market signal is clear: Argentina's group-stage dominance, anchored by Messi's historic scoring streak, has reinforced rather than diminished their status as co-favorites. Prediction-market prices reflect trader sentiment and can shift quickly; they are not guarantees of match outcomes.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 28, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.