Netherlands Beat Tunisia 3-1 to Top World Cup Group F
The Netherlands secured first place in World Cup Group F with a rain-soaked 3-1 victory over Tunisia at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on Thursday, and AP News detailed how Brian Brobbey's chip made it 2-0 inside seven minutes after an own goal opened the scoring. Virgil van Dijk's headed free-kick set up Brobbey's third goal of the tournament, and Jan Paul van Hecke added a deflected header off Anis Slimane for the final Dutch goal after Tunisia had briefly replied through Hazem Mastouri. Japan's 1-1 draw with Sweden in Arlington, played simultaneously, confirmed the Dutch as group winners on seven points. On Polymarket's world-cup-winner market, the Netherlands now trade at about 5.8% to lift the trophy.
Ronald Koeman's side entered the night level with Japan, but the Samurai Blue's failure to beat Sweden left the Oranje with the more favorable Round of 32 path. The Dutch will face Morocco in Monterrey on Monday, while Japan must take on Brazil in Houston — a bracket swing that traders have been watching closely as Group F closed. The Netherlands had stumbled to a 2-2 draw with Japan in their opener before rallying with a 5-1 demolition of Sweden, and Brobbey and Cody Gakpo have combined for eight goals across the group's final two fixtures. Tunisia depart without a point after a chaotic campaign that included a mid-tournament coaching change, but the Dutch arrive at the knockout stage with genuine momentum.
What it means for the odds
A 5.8% implied probability on the Netherlands to win the 2026 World Cup may look modest beside Spain at 13.8% or England at 10.2%, yet topping a four-team group that included Japan and Sweden is precisely the kind of result prediction markets reward. Netherlands winner shares have reflected growing conviction since the Sweden rout, and avoiding a Brazil date in the Round of 32 gives Koeman's squad a clearer runway into the quarterfinals. Morocco, who finished second in Group C behind Brazil, are a credible but less daunting opener than the five-time champions Japan now face. Traders pricing knockout paths often move faster than headline winner odds, but a confirmed group title with seven points and a plus-seven goal difference across three games supports the case that the Dutch belong in the second tier of contenders. Prediction-market prices reflect traded sentiment, not certainties, and can shift sharply once Round of 32 lineups are confirmed.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 26, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.