Paraguay Eliminates Germany in World Cup Penalty Shootout
Paraguay eliminated four-time world champions Germany from the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Monday, winning 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw through extra time at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, BBC Sport reported. José Canale converted the decisive spot-kick after Jonathan Tah blazed Germany's final attempt over the bar, capping one of the tournament's most stunning last-32 results. On prediction markets, Germany's title probability has already collapsed to 0%, while Paraguay sits at just 0.2% to win the World Cup — a number that will draw fresh scrutiny ahead of a likely last-16 clash with France.
Germany had won their previous four World Cup penalty shootouts and entered the tie as heavy favorites against a Paraguay side that averaged only 0.78 goals per game during qualifying, the joint-lowest of any team at the finals. Kai Havertz and Nick Woltemade both had penalties saved by goalkeeper Orlando Gill, while Paraguay missed two chances to seal victory before substitute Canale held his nerve. Paraguay had lost their opening group match 4-1 to co-hosts the United States and scored only twice across three group games, yet coach Gustavo Alfaro doubled down on his defensive structure and it held under sustained German pressure. A Tah header in extra time was ruled out after a VAR check for a foul on Gill. Paraguay now await the winner of Tuesday's France versus Sweden tie in Philadelphia on July 4, and Paraguayan president Santiago Peña declared a national holiday to mark the historic advancement.
What it means for the odds
France currently leads the World Cup winner market at roughly 28.1%, with Spain at 11.3% and Brazil at 7.0%. Germany's exit removes a perennial contender and clears a path in the bracket for whichever side advances from the France-Sweden fixture. Morocco, who also advanced on penalties against the Netherlands on Monday night, holds a 3.8% title probability. Paraguay's 0.2% price reflects how far Alfaro's resolute back line must still climb, but bettors may reassess whether a team that just survived Germany's attack deserves a wider shot against Kylian Mbappé and company. Julian Nagelsmann's side suffered their third consecutive humiliating World Cup exit, and midfielder Nadiem Amiri acknowledged the pain makes it hard to look ahead despite Germany's young talent. Every knockout elimination reshuffles the remaining field; this one removes one of football's most decorated nations well before the quarter-finals. Prediction market odds are crowd-sourced estimates, not guarantees of future results.
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