Uruguay Crash Out; Spain Win Group H — World Cup Odds
Two-time World Cup winners Uruguay were knocked out of the 2026 tournament on Friday after a 1-0 defeat to Spain in Guadalajara, where goalkeeper Fernando Muslera let Alex Baena's shot slip through for the only goal, handing La Roja top spot in Group H and a Round of 32 path that avoids Argentina, per France 24 — Spain now sit at an 11.9% implied championship probability on Polymarket's World Cup winner market. The result capped a miserable group campaign for Marcelo Bielsa's side, who drew with Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia before falling short when it mattered most. Uruguay become the highest-ranked team eliminated at the group stage, while debutants Cape Verde advanced as Group H runners-up thanks to a 0-0 draw against Saudi Arabia played simultaneously in Atlanta. That stalemate sent Cape Verde into a last-32 meeting with defending champions Argentina in Miami on July 3 — a fixture that would rank among the biggest upsets in modern World Cup history if the island nation prevails. Spain, meanwhile, head to Los Angeles on July 2 to face either Austria or Algeria, depending on Saturday's Group J finale between those two sides. Luis de la Fuente's European champions have not conceded a goal across three group matches and extended their unbeaten run in competitive football to 34 games, yet the performance against Uruguay was laboured: Lamine Yamal started after injury management but was withdrawn with 15 minutes remaining, and Ferran Torres hit the bar late on with the goal gaping. After earlier draws, reports suggest tension inside the Uruguay camp, with leading players including Federico Valverde reportedly clashing with Bielsa over tactics — Valverde was substituted on the hour mark against Spain. Manuel Ugarte was stretchered off in the build-up to Baena's goal; reports suggest the Manchester United midfielder suffered a serious knee injury, though the full diagnosis awaits official confirmation.
What it means for the odds
Polymarket's World Cup winner market has already priced Uruguay's elimination to zero — the two-time champions are out, and their pre-tournament equity is gone. Spain, by contrast, hold an 11.9% implied title chance, placing them among the leading contenders behind France (22.1%) and Argentina (18.6%) on the same market. That figure reflects both La Roja's perfect defensive record — three clean sheets, five goals scored, seven points — and lingering questions about their attack: Spain have not produced the same scintillating football as France or the Netherlands through the group stage, and avoiding an early knockout clash with Argentina removes one obstacle but does not guarantee a deep run. Cape Verde's historic qualification barely registers at 0.1%, a price that captures the enormity of their Round of 32 task against Lionel Messi and Argentina. For bettors and prediction-market traders, the Group H denouement reshuffles the knockout bracket more than it reshuffles the title hierarchy: Spain gain a softer perceived path in the short term, Uruguay's market is closed, and the focus shifts to whether de la Fuente can unlock Yamal and Baena when the margins tighten from Sunday onward. The Round of 32 begins June 28, with six final group-stage matches still to play on Saturday across Groups J, K, and L before the bracket is fully set. Prediction-market prices move on results and paths, not narratives — and Friday night's results delivered both. This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute betting advice.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 27, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.