World Cup winner odds: Spain leads at 16% — June 15, 2026
Spain is the prediction market's favorite to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup, priced at a 16% implied probability on $2330M+ of volume. France (16%) and Portugal (11%) round out the front of the field. These are crowd-implied probabilities, not bookmaker prices — they move continuously as people trade.
Top contenders right now
| Team | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| Spain | 16% |
| France | 16% |
| Portugal | 11% |
| England | 10% |
| Argentina | 8% |
| Brazil | 7% |
| Germany | 6% |
| Netherlands | 5% |
| Norway | 2% |
| USA | 2% |
Biggest moves in the last 24 hours
| Team | 24h change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spain | -1 pts | 16% |
| Germany | +1 pts | 6% |
| Norway | -1 pts | 2% |
| Ivory Coast | +1 pts | 1% |
| Turkiye | -1 pts | 0% |
| Ecuador | -1 pts | 0% |
How to read these numbers
Each price is the market's estimate of how likely that outcome is: a 16% price means roughly a 16% chance. Prices are set by real money trading on Polymarket and settle in USDC when results are official — so they tend to react to team news, results, and form faster than published betting lines.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 15, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.