World Cup odds movers: Argentina down 2 points — June 26, 2026
France is the prediction market's favorite to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup, priced at a 19% implied probability on $3152M+ of volume. Argentina (14%) and Spain (14%) round out the front of the field. These are crowd-implied probabilities, not bookmaker prices — they move continuously as people trade.
Top contenders right now
| Team | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| France | 19% |
| Argentina | 14% |
| Spain | 14% |
| England | 11% |
| Portugal | 8% |
| Brazil | 6% |
| Netherlands | 6% |
| Germany | 4% |
| USA | 3% |
| Norway | 3% |
Biggest moves in the last 24 hours
| Team | 24h change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | -2 pts | 14% |
| Brazil | +1 pts | 6% |
| Netherlands | +1 pts | 6% |
| Germany | -1 pts | 4% |
| Morocco | +1 pts | 2% |
| Colombia | -1 pts | 1% |
How to read these numbers
Each price is the market's estimate of how likely that outcome is: a 19% price means roughly a 19% chance. Prices are set by real money trading on Polymarket and settle in USDC when results are official — so they tend to react to team news, results, and form faster than published betting lines.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 26, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.