World Cup odds movers: France up 2 points — July 2, 2026
France is the prediction market's favorite to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup, priced at a 35% implied probability on $3685M+ of volume. Argentina (18%) and Spain (10%) round out the front of the field. These are crowd-implied probabilities, not bookmaker prices — they move continuously as people trade.
Top contenders right now
| Team | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| France | 35% |
| Argentina | 18% |
| Spain | 10% |
| England | 8% |
| Brazil | 6% |
| Portugal | 6% |
| Mexico | 3% |
| Colombia | 3% |
| USA | 3% |
| Morocco | 2% |
Biggest moves in the last 24 hours
| Team | 24h change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| France | +2 pts | 35% |
| England | -2 pts | 8% |
| Argentina | -1 pts | 18% |
| Brazil | -1 pts | 6% |
| Mexico | +1 pts | 3% |
| Morocco | -1 pts | 2% |
How to read these numbers
Each price is the market's estimate of how likely that outcome is: a 35% price means roughly a 35% chance. Prices are set by real money trading on Polymarket and settle in USDC when results are official — so they tend to react to team news, results, and form faster than published betting lines.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (July 2, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.