World Cup winner odds: France leads at 36% — July 5, 2026
France is the prediction market's favorite to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup, priced at a 36% implied probability on $3888M+ of volume. Argentina (17%) and Spain (13%) round out the front of the field. These are crowd-implied probabilities, not bookmaker prices — they move continuously as people trade.
Top contenders right now
| Team | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| France | 36% |
| Argentina | 17% |
| Spain | 13% |
| England | 7% |
| Brazil | 6% |
| Portugal | 6% |
| Mexico | 3% |
| Colombia | 3% |
| Morocco | 3% |
| USA | 2% |
Biggest moves in the last 24 hours
| Team | 24h change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| France | +1 pts | 36% |
How to read these numbers
Each price is the market's estimate of how likely that outcome is: a 36% price means roughly a 36% chance. Prices are set by real money trading on Polymarket and settle in USDC when results are official — so they tend to react to team news, results, and form faster than published betting lines.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (July 5, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.