World Cup odds movers: Argentina up 2 points — July 9, 2026
France is the prediction market's favorite to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup, priced at a 33% implied probability on $4108M+ of volume. Argentina (20%) and Spain (19%) round out the front of the field. These are crowd-implied probabilities, not bookmaker prices — they move continuously as people trade.
Top contenders right now
| Team | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| France | 33% |
| Argentina | 20% |
| Spain | 19% |
| England | 16% |
| Norway | 6% |
| Morocco | 3% |
| Belgium | 2% |
| Switzerland | 2% |
Biggest moves in the last 24 hours
| Team | 24h change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Argentina | +2 pts | 20% |
How to read these numbers
Each price is the market's estimate of how likely that outcome is: a 33% price means roughly a 33% chance. Prices are set by real money trading on Polymarket and settle in USDC when results are official — so they tend to react to team news, results, and form faster than published betting lines.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (July 9, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.