Yamal Goal Lifts Spain to 4-0 Win, World Cup Odds Rise
Lamine Yamal scored 10 minutes into his first World Cup start and Mikel Oyarzabal added a brace as Spain routed Saudi Arabia 4-0 in Atlanta on Sunday, snapping a goalless shock draw against Cape Verde and putting Luis de la Fuente's European champions back on course in Group H. Polymarket traders now price Spain at roughly **13.9%** to lift the 2026 World Cup trophy — a meaningful rebound for a side that entered the tournament among the market's top five contenders. Yamal slid in at the back post to convert Oyarzabal's low cross, becoming one of the youngest goalscorers in tournament history and giving La Roja the early spark their opening match had lacked.
The performance answered questions that had hung over Spain since a 0-0 stalemate with World Cup debutants Cape Verde in their opener. Oyarzabal, criticized for a quiet first outing, delivered two close-range finishes in the space of three minutes before halftime, while Marc Cucurella's second-half effort deflected off Hassan Altambakti for a fourth. Coach Luis de la Fuente withdrew both Yamal and Oyarzabal at the break as a precaution, but the damage was done: Spain moved to four points atop Group H and now need only a point against Uruguay to clinch knockout qualification. For a squad built around teenage creativity and European Championship pedigree, the statement win restored the attacking conviction that had made them pre-tournament favorites.
What it means for the odds
Spain's **13.9%** world-title probability on Polymarket sits behind only France (~19.8%) and roughly level with Argentina (~13.2%) and England (~12.6%) among the outright favorites. That pricing reflects both the upside of a fully fit Yamal — withdrawn at halftime against Saudi Arabia with fitness managed carefully after a hamstring layoff — and the lingering risk that Group H remains tighter than expected after Cape Verde held Uruguay to a 2-2 draw hours later. Uruguay, priced at just **0.15%** to win the tournament, may now need victory over Spain in the final group fixture to guarantee progress, which could force a harder test than La Roja would prefer before the knockout rounds. Still, markets tend to reward teams that correct course quickly, and a four-goal response after a blank opener is exactly the kind of result that tightens a contender's implied title path. Group H concludes with Spain versus Uruguay on June 26, while Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde fight for the remaining advancement scenarios. Prediction-market prices reflect trader sentiment and can shift quickly; they are not betting advice.
Odds via Polymarket and move constantly — figures reflect the time of writing (June 22, 2026). Not financial advice. Prediction-market trading is restricted in some regions; see our responsible-use page.